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An Empirical Study of Forecast Combination in Tourism ( Haiyan Song, Stephen F. Witt, Kevin F. Wong, and Doris C. Wu )
The performance of forecast combination techniques is explored at different time horizons in the context of tourism demand forecasting. Statistical comparisons between the combination and single-model forecasts show that the combined forecasts are significantly more accurate than the average single-model forecasts across all forecasting horizons and for all combination methods. This provides a strong recommendation for forecast combination in tourism. In addition, the empirical results indicate that forecast accuracy does not improve as the number of models included in the combination forecasts increases. It also appears that combining forecasts may be more beneficial for longer-term forecasting.
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Affect, Travel Motivation, and Travel Intention: a Senior Market ( SooCheong (Shawn) Jang, Billy Bai, Clark Hu, and Chi-Mei Emily Wu )
The senior tourism market has received increased attention as the importance of this market segment becomes more evident. However, limited efforts have been devoted to understanding psychological aspects of senior tourists. The primary objectives of this research are to investigate seniors’ affect and travel motivation as well as interrelationships between these two constructs and to discover the effects of affect and motivation on travel intentions of seniors aged 65 or greater. Using Taiwanese seniors as the study sample, the authors identify « novelty seeking » as the most important travel motivation factor from five extracted factors. It is also found that both positive and negative affective states have significant impacts on travel motivations and that only positive affect is significantly related to future travel intention. Among motivation factors, novelty-seeking not only can be stimulated by affect but also arouses travel intention. The findings of this exploratory study provide empirical support to understand psychological aspects of senior travelers.
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Individual Change Schemas, Core Discussion Network, and Participation in Change: an Exploratory Study of Macau Casino Employees ( Wei-ping Liu, Steven S. Lui, and Derek C. Man )
Individuals’participation in organizational change is crucial to the success of a change initiative. We propose that such participation is based on three aspects of individual change schemas: change salience, change valence, and change inference. We further propose that the core discussion network of individuals may moderate the relationships between their change schemas and their participation in change. Using a sample of employees from a major casino operation in Macau, which suddenly faced intense competition after enjoying a 40-year monopoly, this study empirically examines how individuals’ change schemas, participation in change, and core discussion network are related. The results support most of the hypotheses. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.
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Price-Sensitivity Measurement: a Tool for Restaurant Menu Pricing ( Carola Raab, Karl Mayer, Yen-Soon Kim, and Stowe Shoemaker )
Setting the correct price for hospitality products is a crucial management task that has a major influence on a firm’s profitability. In general, there has been a lack of academic interest in the area of pricing in services. The restaurant industry typically establishes prices by marking up a variable cost percentage and by intuition, or by trial-and-error methods. This study illustrates how restaurant managers can use price-sensitivity measurement to assess their guests’ price sensitivity. By means of a relatively simple survey, restaurant managers can gain insights about their menu pricing directly from their customers. This study uses data collected from a Hong Kong buffet restaurant, but the technique could be applied in virtually any restaurant setting. The results reveal price ranges that represent real value for dinner buffet patrons
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